US data center power demand is on course to more than double within two years, driven by an accelerating wave of artificial intelligence infrastructure construction that is reshaping electricity markets across the country, according to new research from Goldman Sachs Commodities Research.

Demand Forecast and Capacity Growth

US data center power demand is expected to climb from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 41 GW in 2026, and then surge to 66 GW in 2027, according to analysts Hongcen Wei, Daan Struyven, and Samantha Dart from the Goldman Sachs commodities team.

The forecast is grounded in an estimate that total US data center capacity will reach approximately 95 GW by the end of 2027, more than doubling the level at the end of 2025, with the projections incorporating a capacity utilization rate assumption of 70%. The scale of planned construction activity reflects a dramatic step-change from recent years.

Year-over-year capacity additions are scheduled to reach 13.6 GW in 2026 and 36.3 GW in 2027, compared with realized additions of 6.4 GW in 2024 and 8.5 GW in 2025.

The research draws on facility-level data from Aterio, which tracks data center activations using information on locations, permitting progress, construction status from official announcements, and satellite imagery.

Recently, EIA released a report stating that data centers could use one-third of commercial power by 2050, underscoring the scale of long-term electricity demand growth tied to AI Data Center infrastructure expansion.

The Gap Between Plans and Reality

Despite the scale of the scheduled buildout, Goldman Sachs Research cautions that a significant portion of planned capacity will not materialize on time. Historically, only approximately 72% of data centers scheduled for activation within the following four quarters have actually come online as planned.

That completion rate falls further for projects further out on the timeline.

After adjusting for these execution risks, Wei, Struyven, and Dart forecast that roughly 60% of capacity scheduled for the next year will come online on time, falling to approximately 50% for projects planned over the following two years.

Even applying those conservative adjustments, the projected additions remain substantial. The analysts estimate 11.5 GW of new capacity will come online in the final three quarters of 2026 alone, following 2.2 GW realized in the first quarter of the year. Several factors explain the persistent gap between construction plans and delivered capacity.

Data center developers frequently submit permit applications across multiple regions simultaneously and proceed only with the most favorable site, limiting the number of projects that ultimately advance.

Supply chain and labor shortages remain the most common causes of delay, and a typical data center requires 18 to 24 months to build once permits are secured.

National Grid Implications

The sheer volume of incoming data center load is set to reshape the national power market in ways that will affect electricity prices and grid stability.

Data centers' share of total US peak summer power demand is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 5.3% in 2026, and then jump to 8.5% in 2027.

That incremental tightening represents a significant shift in the composition of national electricity demand in a compressed timeframe. Power availability and time-to-client are the primary factors driving data center location decisions, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

That dynamic means the most pronounced impacts will be concentrated in regions where large volumes of new capacity are being planned without corresponding growth in power generation infrastructure.

Regional Winners and Stress Points

The research identifies sharp divergences in how different regional power markets will absorb the incoming demand.

In 2027, the average annual data center additions in each of the Mid-Atlantic, Texas, and Mid-Continent power markets are individually scheduled to exceed the entire nation's total additions in 2025, illustrating the geographic concentration of the buildout.

However, the consequences vary considerably by region. The Mid-Atlantic, Mid-Continent, and Northwest markets face elevated power reliability risks because their planned generation capacity additions are limited relative to the volume of incoming data center demand.

Those regions may ultimately be forced to turn away future data center projects that cannot be served reliably.

Texas and Georgia are expected to experience only marginal tightening in their power markets, thanks to significant new generation capacity already in the pipeline in both regions.

That additional supply should help absorb the incoming data center load without triggering the same reliability concerns facing other parts of the country.

At the other end of the spectrum, markets including Tennessee, New England, and Florida are expected to see constrained data center additions because power conditions are already critically tight in those areas.

Uncertainty in Both Directions

The Goldman Sachs analysts note that their outlook carries meaningful uncertainty running in both directions. On the downside, further delays and cancellations could reduce the volume of activated capacity below current projections.

On the upside, new projects not yet in the development pipeline could push actual additions even higher than the current schedule implies, particularly in later years.

The analysts also note that elevated capital spending could compress construction timelines to as little as one year, potentially accelerating the buildout beyond historical patterns and adding further upward pressure on power demand earlier than the current projections anticipate.